Tally ho! The game is a-foot!

The starter gun has gone off, and the race to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat is under way! The special election to fill the seat will be held January 19^th. Governor Patrick may or may not get the Massachusetts State Legislature to change the rules (again) and let him appoint an interim replacement until that election. For those of us who do not want the health care industry to run like the post office, it would be better to leave the seat vacant for a few months.

So lets take a look at how the field is shaping up:

Definitely running for the Democrats:

Attorney General Martha Coakley

Maybe running for the Democrats:

Congressman Michael Capuano, Congressman Stephen Lynch

Not running for the Democrats:

Joe Kennedy (being best buds with Hugo Chavez works against him), Congressman Ed Markey

Definitely running for the Republicans:

State Senator Scott Brown

Maybe running for the Republicans:

Curt Shilling, Christy Mihos

Not running for the Republicans:

Mitt Romney, Andy Card, Kerry Healey

On the Democrat side, the biggest disappointment is clearly the decision by Ed Markey not to run. We in the seventh Congressional district appear to be stuck with him until the November 2010 elections, when his votes on the cap-and-trade energy surtax, the stimulus pork-a-thon bill, and the nationalization of healthcare should be enough to move him to early retirement (IF the Republicans recruit a viable candidate to challenge).

On the Republican side, Curt Shilling is the wild card. He has the money and name recognition to become an instant contender. Yet State Representative Scott Brown has the experience as a legislator as well as the grass-roots political organization to make a strong run at the seat.

Here’s my prediction: Stephen Lynch for the Democrats against Scott Brown for the Republicans. Lynch will take greater Boston out to 128, Brown will take everything west of 495, and both will fight it out in the trenches of the suburbs between 128 and 495. That battle works to Brown’s advantage, in my opinion. Scott Brown will get my vote, and my support.

One further consideration: when the 2010 census results are in, it is likely that Massachusetts will lose yet another congressional district, as the population shifts to other parts of the country. All 10 of Massachusetts congressional districts are represented by Democrats (which might not be unrelated to the fact that people keep leaving Massachusetts). So those 10 Democrats might be thinking about the possibility that their district might be re-districted out of existence, which might in turn be a factor in who runs for the Senate seat.

Author: Mark